Mobile Ad rates 25-40%-- this year

mobile CPMs, or the cost to reach 1,000 consumers, now average about $15 compared with the average earlier this year of $20 to $25. And with the out-of-the-box, $40 to $50 CPMs of last year more or less history now, pricing is beginning to normalize ...

According to AdAge

The Playstation Home experience ...

for MoGlee

India += 3G

finally!

MTNL went live with 3G today.

Airtel sez gimme 6 months and it'll be affordable.  That' remains to be seen!

Either way - the clock is ticking for us.

root cash analysis

About 5-6 weeks back, I was going around saying that the impact of the credit crisis has hit VCs too as their PE does come from college (endowment) funds, to some extent.

Here's a better way to understand it.

When a VC "raises" a $100 million fund, what the firm really has done is gotten commitments from LPs that they will deliver $100 million over the life of the fund. The firm then issues "capital calls" over the next few years and gradually draws the money down. It is these calls that some LPs are reportedly starting to default on.

the deepening divide ...

10% of US on food stamps, according to a Reuters article.

which by itself is ok.

The subscriptions to the program have been growing for the last 7 years - direct correlation with unemployment growth over the same period.

This leads to the concern. And the concern is long-term welfare dependence.
Typically, once one gets into this bracket, it take 5-6 years to get out of it.

And, irrespective of age, there does seem to be a direct correlation to lower employability. (obv the younger one is, when it happens, the greater the school dropout chances.)

Couple that with the lack of affordable housing for the weaker sections of the populace, and one will find that food money is being diverted to living costs.   Extending the spiral.

So, you have
- more people who are poor,
- higher dependence on welfare,
- with marginalized employment options (reducing further due to outsourcing),
- frustrated over being unable to "find a place to live - in the world's only superpower",
- while they see the "asian minorities" (the only ones who seem NOT to be affected) living in the lap of luxury and being regularly lionized by media.
- and an economy stuttering on the brink of a depression.

Recipe for general social unrest.

Japan -= Nokia

permanently!

Looks like 1% market share is a not a sustainable business model.  Go figure!

Interestingly, Japanese market also exhibits a really interesting user characteristic:
- people generally do NOT upgrade / replace handset regularly
- why did it take them 15 years to figure this out?!

Onto other Rising-Sun data ...

They key mobile market segments that exist in Japan today, are:
* One Billing,
* SMS (Short Message Service),
* MMS (Multimedia Messaging Service),
* Email,
* IM (Instant Messaging),
* PTT (Push To Talk),
* Content Download/Streaming,
* Mobile Broadcasting,
* Mobile Portal/Community,
* Mobile Advertising,
* LBS (Location Based Services),
* Personal Tool/Storage,
* Mobile Mall and Mobile Auction,
* Mobile Banking and Mobile Trading,
* On Chip Banking, and
* On Chip Credit Service or Payment

Unconfirmed high growth areas:
* SNS - social networking sites
* Mobile coupons
* Mobile shopping
* and, of course, blogging - something they seem to have taken a liking to.

3G:
* penetration has grown to 90% (from 60 in 2006).
* 90% use the mobile web
* 50% phones have GPS
* "killer app" == "myNet" - Content produced by the subscribers themselves and forwarded among friends and family

Popular sites:
* Rakuten and
* Yahoo Mobile
* Mobagetown (5.5 mln users, 3 mln in 1 yr!) and
* Magic i-land (leader in mobile books)

Other trendy data according to, this vendor
- ring tones are passe - ring songs are IN!
- preferred compensation models for advertisers: CPC, CPA, and sponsored listings

The economics of free, the net, and public services ...

This article outlines some of the factors that have kept ideas like
- internet via power cables
- laser powered net to your home
- muni-wifi
and why most of these continue to quintessentially be, "just around the corner".

Essentially, Tim Wu argues that providing a new service that does not provide either

• a significant cost advantage, or


• a superior service, and


• a way to address the economics of sunk cost leveraged by existing players

is SOL.

He also alludes that, in general, you need to have all the above factors addressed - as most early movers are generally over-hyped, under-qualified and have limited understanding of the market they are looking to dominate.

If you build it, people, generally, will not come.  Econ - 101.

mobile trends

an interesting perspective ...

am recording for the future reference.
Personally, I found the presentation (the view / pictures part) to be really very well done!
Clear, sharp, concise and effective.

the minus points - too much text on half the slides.